CityHallNews.com

Generals Picked, Battle Plans Made for Last Political Battleground
Krueger out as Democrats retool for 2008—or maybe 2007

By John R.D. Celock

Democrats are spinning that while Gov. Eliot Spitzer and Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton strolled to landslide victories in November over little-known GOP opponents, 2006 was not the year they planned on making the major push to retake the State Senate. Instead, they say, 2008 was their goal all along.

State Sen. Liz Krueger (D-Manhattan) chaired the Senate Democrats’ campaign committee for the last two cycles. She said the party has a three-cycle plan with a goal of retaking the Senate in 2008. In 2006 the plan called for electing Andrea Stewart-Cousins in Westchester and retaining Sen. David Valesky, the top GOP target, in his Syracuse seat.

“This was in recognition that non-presidential years are toughest for bottom of the ticket candidates,” Krueger said.

A Democratic Senate majority could be closer than some expect, with the possibility of three special elections on Long Island causing a midterm switch. On Feb. 6, there will be the competitive special election between Craig Johnson and Maureen O’Connell to replace Republican Michael Balboni, who resigned to become Spitzer’s homeland security czar. Many observers believe that Balboni’s personal popularity kept the district, which has a slight Democratic edge in registration, in GOP hands.

Senate Districts to Watch in 2007-08

3rd Senate District (Suffolk)
Sen. Caesar Trunzo (R)
First Elected: 1972
Trunzo has faced competitive races in 2004 and 2006 and following a fall late last year, is speculated to be considering early retirement in 2007. A Trunzo spokesman laughed off the speculation.

4th Senate District (Suffolk)
Sen. Owen Johnson (R)
First Elected: 1972
Johnson, one of the state’s most powerful and longest serving senators, is speculated to be considering early retirement in 2007.

7th Senate District (Nassau County)
Vacant after resignation of Sen. Michael Balboni (R)
The Feb. 6th special election between Democratic Nassau County Legislator Craig Johnson and Republican Nassau County Clerk Maureen O’Connell is the next premier race on the state’s political horizon.

15th Senate District (Queens)
Sen. Serphin Maltese (R)
First Elected: 1988
Maltese narrowly defeated political neophyte Albert Baldeo in 2006 and City Councilman Joseph Addabbo is planning a race against Maltese in 2008, making this one of the city’s premier races next year.

49th Senate District
(Onondaga, Madison, Oneida, Cayuga and Oswego Counties)
Sen. David Valesky (D)
First Elected: 2004
The top GOP target of 2006, Valesky proved strong, easily fending off Assemblyman Jeff Brown. There have been reports that Tom Dadey---Valesky’s 2004 Conservative Party opponent who was passed over by Joe Bruno in 2006--is considering another race for the seat.

61st Senate District (Erie and Genesee Counties)
Sen. Mary Lou Rath (R)
First Elected: 1993
Rath, a member of one of Erie County’s most prominent political families, has been the subject of retirement rumors since 2002.

Though Lt. Gov. David Paterson admitted poaching Balboni for the Spitzer administration “certainly looked somewhat political,” he insisted that Balboni was picked purely on the basis of his credentials. He said that though he would like Democrats to gain a majority, he and Spitzer are not actively courting other Republican senators.

However, though he declined to provide names or any other identifying characteristics, he said, “there are a lot of people asking us.”

In addition to the Balboni seat, Kevin Wardally, a Democratic political consultant who is advising new State Senate minority leadership, said there have been reports that Sen. Owen Johnson and Sen. Caesar Trunzo in Suffolk County have been considering early retirement in 2007. Both Johnson and Trunzo were elected in 1972 and are among the State Senate’s older members. Both hold seats that Democrats are likely to have good chances to win.

If there are special elections in all three seats, and Democrats win all three seats, in 2007, the Senate would be split 31-31. Lt. Gov. David Paterson’s tie breaking vote would then give Democrats the majority.

Wardally cautioned fellow Democrats about unchecked optimism.

“I’m a political consultant, not a psychic,” Wardally said about the chances of Democrats picking up control in 2007. “I don’t think we can win all three but we can win one or two. That would be a great win for Democrats in ‘07.”

The Senate has been controlled by Republicans for all but one year since the late 1930s. Democrats captured the Senate for a one-year term in 1964, following a temporary expansion of the Senate because of federal voting rights issues. In 1965, Republicans, lead by Minority Leader Earl Brydges (R-Niagara), recaptured the Senate and have maintained control of the chamber since.

The narrow victory last year of State Sen. Serphin Maltese (R-Queens) over Albert Baldeo caught many by surprise. Maltese blames the closeness of the race on the statewide political environment for 2006 with John Faso as the gubernatorial nominee and John Spencer as the Senate nominee. He does not see 2008 being a tough race for him or other Senate Republicans.

“Who the hell thought John Sweeney would lose to a neophyte? Who thought Sue Kelly would lose, and look at the close race Reynolds had,” Maltese said, referring to the three members of Congress. “It’s practically a miracle with Spencer and Faso losing that we managed to lose one Senate seat.”

Republican pollster John McLaughlin said long before the votes were counted, he had predicted a closer race for Maltese, with a coattails effect from Spitzer and Clinton. He said he had advised Maltese of that fact and saw the Democrats placing more money into the district.

Maltese said he was not warned by any advisors of a close race. Neither, Krueger said, was she.

Maltese is in for a tougher fight in 2008, as City Council Member Joseph Addabbo (D-Queens) has made clear he is an all-but-certain candidate for the seat.

Addabbo said last year’s results helped influence him to decide to make the Senate race. Also important, he stressed, is looking for a new way to serve with term limits looming in 2009.

With the encouragement of Mayor Michael Bloomberg (R), Addabbo briefly weighed a challenge to Maltese last year. He said he plans on sitting down with the mayor to discuss next year. Baldeo has said he plans on running again in 2008.

State Sen. Mary Lou Rath’s (R-Erie) husband fell ill and died several years ago, and speculation about her retirement has swirled for the last two election cycles. In addition, fellow Erie Republican State Sen. Dale Volker, the third longest-serving senator, has been reported to be considering retirement. Western New York political observers said that while both seats are considered safe Republican seats, the right kind of Democratic candidate could make them competitive.

Krueger said she expects those seats to remain Republican if Rath and Volker retire, while insisting that Democrats will not cede upstate districts to the GOP.

Currently Democrats control four upstate Senate districts, including the Valesky seat, which covers a rural swath of Central New York. The other three are centered in urban areas of Buffalo, Niagara Falls and Albany.

State Senate Minority Leader Malcolm Smith maintains that he never expected to take the majority until 2008.

“It’s important to be in the majority,” he said, describing it as a top priority. He is hopeful that political dynamics might align before the next scheduled election cycle, Smith said, and if they do, “I’m prepared to be majority leader.”

In the meantime, he has changed the Democratic campaign structure.

The job Krueger had heading the Democratic State Senate Campaign Committee has been split into three, and she will not be continuing in any of the parts. State Sen. Jeff Klein (D-Bronx/Westchester) will oversee fundraising, Sen. Diane Savino (D-Brooklyn/Staten Island) will oversee recruitment and freshman Sen. Antoine Thompson (D-Buffalo) will oversee campaigns. This is similar to the structure State Senate Majority Leader Joe Bruno (R-Rensselaer) put in place for his party two years ago.

Krueger said the decision to make a change at the campaign helm has nothing to do with her public support of Sen. Eric Schneiderman (D-Manhattan) for minority leader over Smith. She said the caucus has been working together well, and that she has a good working relationship with Smith.

On the contrary, she said, she is eager to focus more of her energy and time on legislation, especially since “the fact that I am being replaced by three people shows how much work it is.”