CityHallNews.com

Pundit Poll
Hail to the Chief Executive Officer?

So Michael Bloomberg is running for president. Or he is not. Or he is toying with the idea. Or he has dismissed it entirely.

One way or another, the Bloomberg for President campaign is thriving in people’s minds and in the media, with all sorts of different explanations afloat about what the man who never moved into Gracie Mansion might think of the White House.

City Hall asked eight expert observers of various professions, political stripes and backgrounds for their take on why the discussion persists, and what reality may have to say about it come 2008.

Mickey Carroll

Director, Polling Institute of Quinnipiac University

How do you explain it? Well they talk about it, but I mentioned to Kevin Sheekey, “Let me offer six words, Ross Perot, John Anderson, George Wallace.” Stop and think about it: how are you going to run? Republicans won’t nominate him, Democrats won’t nominate him.

What would he run as, an independent? He’d need a majority of the electoral vote—not even the most, a majority. And suppose it went into the House of Representatives—he’d have no party.

The one thing you’ve got to say about Bloomberg is he won an election he shouldn’t have run the first time around, so, what the hell?

Will he run? The funny thing about Bloomberg is this: he’s obviously an incredibly capable, energetic guy, and what is he going to do after City Hall? But short of him becoming a Democrat or a Republican and getting the nomination, there’s no way in the world.

What odds would you give it? Assuming that he’s a very smart man, which he is, the odds are roughly 100% against him running. The chances of him winning are zilch.

Kevin Wardally

Director, Political & Governmental Operations

Bill Lynch Associates, LLC

How do you explain it? I think that Bloomberg running for president is a hoax. I think his chances are minimal at best. He’s not a real Republican. He became a Republican out of expediency to avoid having to run in the Democratic primary. But I think he has some smart advisors, and it’s smart politics to keep him in the mix. That way he’s not just a lame duck mayor, but a player on the national stage.

Will he run? No.

What odds would you give it? 25 to 1 against him running.

Marcia Kramer

Investigative and Political Reporter, Co-host, “Kirtzman & Kramer”

WCBS-2

How do you explain it? Bloomberg, like any good business tycoon, is trying to keep his options open. Proof? He put his campaign manager, Kevin Sheekey, on the city payroll as deputy mayor for intergovernmental affairs, which means that Sheekey deals with all things political. I think one of Sheekey’s missions may be to see if there’s a way to squeeze Bloomberg into the race... most likely as an independent third party candidate and possibly self-funded, much like his 2001 mayoral race. If no way materializes, well, nothing lost... Bloomberg can always say he was never interested and go into philanthropy.

Will he run? Hard to say. I think he’d like to run if he has some chance of victory. If it’s a losing cause, he won’t. He’ll become a philanthropist and focus on the public health issues that are near and dear to his heart.

What odds would you give it? 2 in 7... which is much better odds than he got when he ran for mayor in 2001.

Ed Koch

Former Mayor

How do you explain it? He’s recognized all over the country as someone whose politics are balanced, liberal but moderate, and appealing to conservatives because of his conservative financial background, how he pulled New York City out of the red column and into a thriving community.

His advisors certainly would like to be advisors to a president.

Will he run?I can take him at his word, and he says he’s not.

What odds would you give it? 25 percent.

Mitchell Moss
Henry Hart Rice Professor of Urban Policy and Planning

Robert F. Wagner Graduate School of Public Service at New York University

How do you explain it? I think that there’s a lot of uncertainty in the national political arena, and a tremendous desire for a non-partisan political voice is underlying the appeal for Bloomberg. There’s also a genuine sense that the Washington milieu is basically paralyzed.

There is fundamental desire by Americans for people who know how to get things done instead of just engaging in ideological battles. The most important fact about the national political environment is how uncertain it is. And I think there is a genuine relationship that Americans have to New York today that they did not have before.

Will he run? [Would not speculate.]

What odds would you give it? Odds? How would I know odds? I’m a professor—I don’t know anything about gambling.
Hank Sheinkopf

Democratic Political Consultant

How do you explain it? First of all, it’s flattery that people would think that you’re presidential material, so why stop the rumors? Two: It heightens your stature beyond New York. Three: The normative message probably revolves around very simply ideas. He’ll protect your job, and he’ll protect your home. People care about the economy and security. You know, he’s a proven manager, so he’s got to get back to the management thing.

Will he run? Too early to tell, but it’s not the craziest idea I’ve ever heard.

What odds would you give it? 50/50

Thomas Ognibene
Former Council Republican Leader

2005 Conservative Party Candidate for Mayor

How do you explain it? When I first started campaigning with the mayor when he first started to run, he was quite the novice. I think he’s gotten much better at being a political figure.

He said he could spend about $500 million and that’s a big deal.

I don’t think he could ever become president, but he could become a serious power broker. I don’t think people are ready for a Mike Bloomberg.

Will he run? He has come to love being in the limelight, and he enjoys being a political figure.

I think he actually will do it.

What odds would you give it? Even money.

Jimmy Breslin
Columnist and Author

How do you explain it? Months before Bloomberg was elected I told a table of people including Wayne Barrett, Jack Newfield, Morty Matz, and Bill Cunningham that he would run for president and might even win. He has the money and the ego. To me these are not rumors. They are merely confirming my ability to see again.

Will he run? Yes.

What odds would you give it? [Would not say.]