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Dealing With Disgrace 2007: A Look Ahead Faso's HQ Burgled Bloomberg' Political Contribution Investments Come Up Short First Spitzer Transition Team Meeting Set Up in the Air� Up in the Sky� It�s the Mayor of New York? Diversity Remains Beyond FDNY's Grasp Political Consultant Round-Up Taking the Temperature of Health Laws Solar Power's Not-So-Bright Future Greens Hope for Ballot Access through Lawsuit Working Families and Conservatives Parties See Mixed Results Despite Big Election Turnover, Limited Changes for Big Apple Ahead
In the Chair: Robert Jackson In the Trenches: Steven Matteo No Cape, But the Ad Man is a Democratic Hero Back in the District: James Vacca On the Agenda Where Are They Now? Manfred Ohrenstein Mr. Haber Goes to Hollywood Sandwiches and Soda with Adolfo Carrión Editorial: You've Got to Be in It to Win It What the Poverty Report Misses by Maureen Lane When Big Winners Meet Big Winners, Who Wins? by Alan Chartock Standing Up for New York City's Fair Share by Gifford Miller and William Cunningham
There's a pony in here somewhere,” the always sunny Ronald Reagan used to say when the chips were down. And in the coming months, Republicans across the nation will search far and wide through the rubble trying to find it.
A strong wind blew across the country and lots of Republicans fell, especially more conservative Republicans. In New York State, the Republican defeat was so big that Assembly Member Denny Farrell stepped down as State Democratic Party Chair, saying that he could not top the positive change that occurred on his watch. The new governor will likely appoint a successor from Long Island or the Erie County area. For the first time in most people's memories, the state's Democrats have all five statewide elected officials.
The “thumping” at the ballot boxes was more than the shot across the bow most political analysts predicted. It was a direct hit to the hull, right above the waterline, threatening the very viability of a Republican ship whose rudder has been erratic in the past few years.
The errant direction of the vessel varies, of course, depending on whom you talk to. To some Republicans, the party moved too far left economically, becoming “Democrat-lite” in its expansion of government. To others, the party veered sharply right, by evangelical coup and decree.
Some factions in the impossibly large GOP tent argue that leadership became complacent about their priorities, choosing political expediency over fundamental change x or y. But to the vast majority of observers, the root of the nation's present anxiety and discontent is obvious: Iraq, and what to do about it.
One thing made clear by this year's election results is that the public doesn't trust the Republican Party right now, neither nationally nor locally. And that's a big problem for those looking to rebuild it. People no longer are sure what they will get when they vote Republican—the brand has been compromised—an awfully bad thing for a political party.
That was not the case as recently as two years ago. In the 2004 presidential election, voters knew, at a minimum, that the Republicans were the party with a plan to defeat terrorism—the likely variable in pushing President Bush over the top in swing states like Ohio and Colorado. Now, with Iraq tilted precipitously toward civil war, and no new direction clearly articulated, those same voters are not so sure.
New York Republicans were hit especially hard by the bitter winds blowing across America last week. For the first time in seven decades, Democrats were elected to every statewide office, and by historic margins. It didn't matter the stripe of the Republican—liberal, centrist, conservative—all were tossed under the bus by a disenchanted electorate. (The exceptionally strong field of Democratic candidates didn't help matters much either.)
It was a tough day for the New York GOP, but all is not lost. Because beneath the wreckage, a heart still beats. But the Democrats are about to do everything in their power to try to snuff it out.
The New York State Senate remains in Republican hands—the last redoubt of Republicanism in New York—and from it the Party can rebuild. It has done so before to great heights under no-less trying circumstances, beginning in 1992 for example, when Bill Clinton was improbably elected president—after an eccentric gubernatorial candidate had almost relegated New York Republicans to third-party ballot status two years earlier. From that low-point in the party's history sprang extraordinary highs, including a three-term governor, mayoralties around the state and victories in Congress. None of that could have occurred without a strong political infrastructure within the GOP Senate.
Emboldened New York Democrats know this all too well, and once they climb down from their chandeliers next week, will almost certainly begin plotting 2008. They know that if they can capture three State Senate seats in the 2008 cycle—with them the Senate Majority—and hold those seats through the 2010 elections, they can all but vanquish Republicans in New York for decades to come. With command of both houses of the State Legislature, they would be in complete control of the redistricting process in 2011, allowing them to alter the political landscape to their advantage for a generation.
Most likely leading the 2008 ticket for the Democrats will be none other than Hillary Rodham Clinton, who is as beautifully positioned for the presidency as independent Republicans John McCain and Rudy Giuliani. It is an opportunity for which the Democrats have waited a half-century, and an inevitability for which the Republicans have long prepared.
With the cameras squarely on the presidential contest in 2008, the battle for the State Senate will be little noticed by the public, but it will be a fight arguably more important to New York's political future. It certainly will be on the radar screens of New York's business leaders, who well understand the dangers of a one-party system.
The good news for Republicans here and nationally is that there are two full years to steer a proper course again and to rekindle the trust of voters. These efforts will take place against the backdrop of a Democratic-led New York and a Democratic leadership in Congress with rudder problems of its own. Therein, perhaps, lies Mr. Reagan's pony.
William F. B. O'Reilly is a partner at O'Reilly Strategic Communications.
Strong Wind Blowing
Democrats, liberals and progressives get a boost
As big as the win for Democrats was, it could have been bigger. Partisan gerrymandering and the fabled Republican micro-targeted 72 Hour GOTV (get out the vote) Plan cut into the victory in Congressional races nationally and in the state. Nonetheless, the Democrats have reversed the margin of control in the House, taken control of the Senate, and picked up six governors, and the Republicans lost control of 10 state legislative houses.
Even with the Democratic State Senate campaign committee going to sleep in the spring, Republican State Senator Nick Spano has gone down to defeat. Gerrymandering and organization saved House Republicans upstate. Reps. James T. Walsh received only 51 percent of the vote, John R. Kuhl Jr. won with 52 percent and RCCC Chair Thomas M. Reynolds came back from behind to get only 51 percent. Expect tension between Spitzer and the Assembly's Democratic majority over a reform move to an independent reapportionment commission or gerrymandering favoring the Democrats. Whichever side wins, Republican state senators and the Republicans left in Congress from New York will lose advantage.
The open seat was caught in the wave and went to the Democrat with a comfortable 8-point margin. Heavily targeted Congressman Sweeney went down when his female opponent in effect raised the proverbial question, “Do you still beat your wife,” when her side made an issue of a domestic abuse 911 call and the Republican congressman's current and former wives answered—no. That story, added to the frat party exposé, was too much for voters.
Bloomberg can now use 2007 to find more friends nationally should he run for president, while he vies for control of the state party with Joe Bruno.
A third surprise win for the Democrats was the Sue Kelly seat. She was not on the endangered list of any pundit and had a well drawn district, but she lost by a small margin anyway. Her campaign did not try to create a negative image of her opponent early, the Democrat had lots of well organized troops, and Speaker Silver and Rep. Eliot Engel intervened with a conservative Jewish group that swung their voters en masse to the Democrat. This seat will be in play next time.
Now that local House Republicans are in the minority nationally and will lose committee chairs and the ability to bring home the bacon, Democratic leaders expect to pick up three, four or more seats here next time, when Democratic turnout will be even higher, since it's a presidential year.
Conservatives did not just lose seats, they also lost issues. There were loads of ballot measures up where they also did poorly. Efforts to restrict in some way a woman's right to choose went down in every state where it was on the ballot, while increases in the minimum wage were approved all over the country. In New York, 2007 may be the year to end cross party endorsements.
Nationally, at least four people who have been mentioned as future presidential candidates crashed and burned, and others supported candidates who went down to defeat. As the Republican Party collapsed in New York State, the presidential aspirations of Governor Pataki diminished, because he left the party here in a shambles. Without his office in the Capitol to sit in, next year he will continue his decline.
Giuliani spent the campaign ingratiating himself to Republican leaders and his party's right wing base, but most of the candidates who he spoke for will not be in office should he run. He will have to spend 2007 reorganizing if he plans to run for president. Mayor Bloomberg, on the other hand, had more success cherry-picking progressives who had a better chance of winning, which improves his standing in national Republican circles. He can now use 2007 to find more friends nationally should he run for president, while he vies for control of the state party with Joe Bruno.
Statewide Democrats did superbly. Spitzer and Hillary racked up historic wins and both Cuomo and Hevesi had convincing victory margins. Hevesi did so well in fact that googoos (good government types) will have a hard time making a case against him now that the people have spoken so clearly. After all, how could googoos say, for example, that the City Council should not overturn term limits because the people have spoken and now argue for taking the decision of who should be the Comptroller out of the people's hands. Expect to see Hevesi stay in office, helping his friends and remembering those who walked away from him.
The only questions that remain are: Who will Spitzer appoint to run the government? The beginnings look like a hunt for the best and the brightest, but expect it to also include incumbent state and city legislators who move to the executive branch, thus creating special elections next year. What major projects will begin? Look for quick starts on projects like the Second Avenue Subway, Ground Zero, Governors Island, Moynihan Station, the new Tappan Zee Bridge, not to mention Rep. Jerry Nadler's rail freight tunnel. And expect school aid for New York City to get real money.
While Spitzer brings more reform to state government, look for Christine Quinn to add reform to the City Council, while she raises pay. Someone new will take the leadership of the State Senate Campaign Committee and begin the process of doing locally for New York what Senator Chuck Schumer did nationally in the US Senate.
Then there is the question of whether or not Bloomberg becomes the leader of the state's Republicans, funding it like Rockefeller to increase the standing of progressives, while reducing the influence of the conservative wing like he did nationally. And does Hillary's campaign for president begin or will a leadership slot in the Senate look too good? I say her presidential campaign has already begun.
Joseph Mercurio is a political consultant with National Political Services, Inc.