Sen. Hillary Clinton's quest to become president is over. Her quest for a third term in the Senate, however, may only just be beginning.

When she returns to her regular workday on Capitol Hill, Clinton will hardly be the only senator nursing the wounds of scuttled presidential ambitions. But after two lopsided wins for a Senate seat that was largely seen as a steppingstone to a presidential run, some say she may have her work cut out for her in convincing New Yorkers—in a primary, a general election, or both—to send her back to Washington, if that is what she seeks to do, in 2012.

“Between now and 2012, a case will be made that she should not run for another term,” said labor activist Jonathan Tasini, who lost a primary challenge against Clinton in 2006.

The presidential campaign, Tasini said, exposed her shortcomings—her vote for the Iraq War, lobbyist ties, and her hand in President Bill Clinton's trade agreements—that critics like Tasini had pointed to for years.

Tasini is confident that these grievances will lead to someone mounting a primary. Tasini even refused to rule himself out for a repeat primary after receiving phone calls asking him to run.

“The base of support for people who want a primary challenge to the incumbent senator in 2012 is much broader and deeper than it was two years ago,” Tasini said. “But there's still some lack of backbone and willingness to engage in primary challenges.”

Senate primary challenges are rare but possible. In 2002, New Hampshire's GOP was concerned that incumbent Republican Sen. Bob Smith was vulnerable in the general election. Smith, however, had never been wildly popular, and in frustration following an aborted run for the 2000 Republican nomination, had briefly left the Republican Party.

That helped propel John Sununu, a popular congressman, into the primary. He won the nomination and the general election.

But Clinton remains deeply popular in the state. Not only did she win 57 percent in this year's presidential primary, but she took a whopping 84 percent in the 2006 primary against Tasini, without ever paying him much attention. Democratic party leaders and average voters, who cleared the way for her first run in 2000, show few signs of dissatisfaction with her being in the Senate.

And for the general elections, she went from a large 55-43 win in 2000 to a massive 67-31 win in 2006.

John Spencer, the former Yonkers mayor who was the Republican nominee against Clinton in 2006, sees Clinton's presidential campaign as an opening for a formidable candidate. In 2006, Spencer hammered the theme that Clinton was more interested in being president than a senator for New York.

However, to exploit that point, the state GOP needs a dramatic makeover, Spencer said.

“If they want to act as they have been doing the past decade, act as Democrat-light, then they won't beat her,” Spencer said. “She'll have a difficult time if the Republicans coalesce and make a real Republican agenda.”

Spencer blamed his and gubernatorial candidate John Faso's crushing 2006 defeats on the State GOP's weak leadership, which resulted in a base fractured by primary challenges.

That also would have to change, if Republicans hope to give Clinton a real fight, Spencer said.

However, Rep. Peter King (R-Nassau/Suffolk) thinks that Republicans will not be able to topple Clinton. The marathon presidential campaign and strong showing in her state's primary is a good indication that Clinton will be safe in 2012.

“It may go against the grain, but it's made her stronger,” King said. “She's a person of real substance. People will take her more seriously now than they did before.”

Many factors could effect Clinton’s chances over the next four years, King said. A strong showing in New York in the presidential election by Arizona Sen. John McCain could generate the base for future Republican candidates, including some for Senate.

King, who has himself expressed interest in running for governor, said that this might ultimately include him.
“I'm not thinking about it now,” King said. “But I'm not ruling it out.”

An early New York Obama supporter, State Sen. Bill Perkins (D-Manhattan) predicted Clinton could cruise to re-election, despite some who feel a rift between Clinton and New York’s black community after the racially-charged South Carolina primary and her comments regarding her base of white Democrats.

She will have to rebuild some bridges, Perkins said.

“There were feelings created by virtue of how the campaign expressed itself, things she has said,” Perkins said. “She has to recognize some of the comments that were made by her and her husband.”

Perkins does not, however, believe that there will be much of a challenge by a black candidate for Clinton in 2012.
But the larger question, Perkins said, is whether Clinton wants to stay in the Senate now that her main goal is out of reach.

“Maybe,” Perkins said, “this was the prize and it eluded her and she doesn't want to continue in that capacity.”